Renad Mansour spoke on CBC’s The Current with Anna Maria, alongside Bruno Geddo, the UNHCR representative in Iraq, and Eric Mors, co-chair of Security Studies at the Royal Canadian Military Institute. He discussed the potential outcomes for the battle to retake Mosul.
Mansour pointed out that what will happen next in Mosul is unclear and there is a high probability of conflict between the different groups gearing up to expel the Islamic State from the city. Different political, tribal, and governmental actors are seeking more power and influence through their involvement in the battle.
Mansour noted that it will also be particularly hard to maintain security in Mosul. Although all involved military groups -Iraq’s military forces, Popular Mobilization Forces, and the Peshmerga- have one aim to defeat ISIS, none are in agreement with each other. There is a worry that there could be a security vacuum and fighting between the different groups fighting the Islamic State. Mansour believes though that if there is a proper peace settlement between the distinct entities in Mosul, this would enable the displaced locals to return to a safe environment.
Mansour also noted that the Islamic State had already been an underground organization within Mosul and was present in the city even before it was taken over by the group in June 2014. Mansour warned that if the government cannot provide safety and basic services in Mosul than the Islamic State will exploit the situation and attempt to retake the city as they see it vital for their plans.