Undoubtedly, the Syrian civil war will find its place in the history books as the ultimate example of cynical realpolitik.
A more assertive relationship with Turkey is in store for the European Union, but the assertiveness will likely be both ways.
One hundred years on, the facts of the Armenian genocide of 1915 are not in dispute. But the word genocide itself has become an obstruction to rapprochement between Armenians and Turks.
Amid multiple security spillovers from the Syrian crisis, Turkish public opinion is becoming less supportive of Ankara’s ambitious agenda to champion regime change in Syria.
The West and Turkey should meet the Islamic State threat with counterterrorism and border control measures. That may not be a military operation, but it is a big challenge.
Turkey’s policy of conditioning its anti–Islamic State engagement on support for an anti-Assad campaign will be at best ineffective and at worst counterproductive.
Turkey fundamentally disagrees with the United States in its interpretation of the threat that the Islamic State poses, viewing the group as a symptom of deeper pathologies.
Even though tensions over Ukraine will inevitably cast a shadow over the bilateral relationship, Russia and Turkey—a NATO member—continue to share a range of important interests.
The appointments of a new European Council president and EU foreign policy chief will impact EU-Turkey relations, but the critical test will be how both players respond to events in the Middle East.
The Syrian and Iraqi crises revealed that Turkey cannot guarantee its own security without solid cooperation from its western allies. As Erdogan transitions from prime minster to president, he must recognize this reality.