Ten years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq and fifteen months after the departure of U.S. combat troops, the outlook for Iraqi stability, security, and democracy remains deeply uncertain. Sectarian tensions continue to drive political decision-making, while the central government led by Nouri al-Maliki is further consolidating its hold on executive power. Ryan Crocker, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Samir Sumaida’ie, former Iraqi ambassador to the United States, and Emma Sky of Yale University examined the current state of Iraqi domestic politics, the country’s role in the region, and its relationship with the United States. The panel was moderated by Washington Post journalist Rajiv Chandrasekaran, author of Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq’s Green Zone.

Domestic Political Turmoil

  • A Difficult Past: Crocker emphasized that Iraq continues to be haunted by its dictatorial past which has shaped the behavior and priorities of key actors. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s conspiratorial outlook and autocratic ruling style are a legacy of  his experience as a political opponent of Saddam Hussein’s regime and as a member of the previously repressed Shia population. According to Crocker, Maliki’s  political priority remains to consolidate his own power,  not to strengthen the countries new national institutions.
     
  • Patronage Politics: Sumaida’ie added that political power in Iraq continues to rest on a patronage system controlled by those with access to the country’s natural resources. The political transition process was based on the flawed assumption that Iraq’s political elites would simply adopt the new democratic rules. Instead, Sumaida’ie argued that the autocratic Iraqi rentier state based on oil revenues and control of the security apparatus survives beneath the country’s democratic institutional façade and is increasingly under the control of the Prime Minister and his associates.
     
  • Rising Kurdish–Arab Tensions: Sky pointed out that while Iraqi Kurdistan to some extent represents the country’s economic and political success story, relations between Kurdish leaders and the central government in Baghdad are worse than ever before. Besides unresolved land disputes and tensions over natural resource control, the Kurds fear a power grab by the central government, and the U.S. military is no longer present to serve as a mediator between the two sides.
     
  • Sectarian Divisions: According to Sumaida’ie, Iraqi society has historically not been divided along ethnic or religious lines. However, Saddam Hussein’s policy of nurturing sectarian divisions fostered a strong sense of mistrust among the country’s Shia population, which, having finally acceded to power, is determined not to relinquish control. Sumaida’ie further underlined that the recent return of extremist violence can be traced back to the general sense of dissatisfaction and frustration among the population.

Iraq’s Role in the Region

  • Rising Iranian Influence: Crocker highlighted the complexity of Iranian-Iraqi relations: on the one hand, Iranian influence has continued to grow since the waning of U.S. influence in the country and plays a crucial role in Iraqi political calculations. On the other hand, Iraq has historically been a vanguard of Arab nationalism and its past relationship with its Persian neighbor has been marked by violent and protracted conflict.  The relationship is driven more by shared interests, than by domination of Baghdad, by Tehran.  Growing Sunni extremism in Syria is a development that is of real concern to Maliki, as well as the Iranians.
     
  • Estrangement From the Arab World: Sumaida’ie explained that Iranian support for Iraqi Shi’a political forces following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein alienated regional Arab powers and to some extent estranged Iraq from the wider Arab world.   He indicated that is important for Iraq not to turn its back on its historically important role in the Arab world.
     
  • The Syrian Crisis: Sky also underscored the Iraqi government fears that the Sunni Gulf states could unite to overthrow the Shia-dominated regime in Syria and bring more radical Sunni forces to power, which in turn would have significant repercussions for sectarian and religious divisions within Iraq.

U.S. Policy in Iraq

  • Need for High-Level Engagement: Crocker argued that the United States has failed at positioning itself as a long-term strategic partner of the Iraqi government, and since its military withdrawal it has not used the full extent of its political leverage to seek to affect change in the country. He recommended that the United States rely on the Strategic Framework Agreement to increase its high-level engagement with Baghdad and signal its continued involvement in the country and region.
     
  • Speaking out Against Undemocratic Practices: Addressing the domestic perspective on U.S. involvement in Iraq, Sumaida’ie emphasized the diversity of views in Iraqi society, as well as the sense of disillusionment felt even by those who initially supported the U.S. intervention. Sumaida’ie suggested that the U.S. government should take a stronger stance with regard to the Iraqi government’s human rights abuses and oppressive political practices, while explicitly affirming its support of the Iraqi political process and secular political forces in particular.
     
  • Supporting Iraqi Political Institutions: Sky criticized the lack of U.S. investment in the country’s political institutions and the excessive focus on al-Maliki and his government. She argued that the existing Strategic Framework Agreement provides one avenue for strengthening Iraqi institutions and democracy, but that the United States should also further engage its allies in the region and could potentially use its arm sales to the Iraqi government as a tool for political leverage.