Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C. He is also a weekly columnist for The National newspaper in Abu Dhabi and a monthly contributing writer for the International New York Times. Ibish is the author of What’s Wrong with the One-State Agenda? Why Ending the Occupation and Peace with Israel is Still the Palestinian National Goal (The American Task Force on Palestine, 2009).
It is to discuss the ongoing diplomatic crisis involving Qatar, the conditions for its resolution, and the future of the Gulf Cooperation Council, that Diwan spoke with Ibish on his recent visit to Beirut in early June.
The interview was organized and filmed by Carnegie Web Coordinator Ghida Tayara.
Comments(2)
Does Dr. Ibish remember the failed 1996 coup, sponsored by the same neighbors, which sought to murder the then Emir and his brothers and restore Sheikh Khalifah as a pliant Saudi vassal?
In this interview Mr. Ibish predicts that Qatar will eventually offer concessions in an effort to resolve this crisis. It appears that as of June 11 Qatari government is still defiant. The signal from United States is mixed (Pres. Trump sided with Saudi-UAE but the state department has maintained a neutral position and called for negotiations.) Without U.S. consent Saudi Arabia and UAE can not put military pressure on Qatar. Support from Turkey and Iran, plus strong popular support in Arab world through social media, means that Qatar will try to negotiate a middle ground settlement rather than offer one-sided concessions. Qatar is adjusting its import-export routes. Its economic linkages with Saudi and UAE economies is under 10% of its total trade. Furthermore, Qatar provides 50% of UAEs natural gas and will be able to use this supply as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with GCC. A settlement is likely in the next three months and the most probable outcome is that Qatar will address some of the Saudi demands but not all of them. It will continue to maintain some degree of independence from the Saudi-UAE vision.
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