Speculation continues that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may be forced from office, or severely diminished, as a consequence of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul earlier this month.
However, this outcome is highly unlikely, despite demands from some Western governments for a proper investigation and the decision by leading world finance officials and some global businesses to pull out of the international investment conference held in Riyadh on October 23–25. So strong a stance is unprecedented. However, even if this leads to more severe penalties should Prince Mohammed’s responsibility for the crime be proven, he will not only survive, but will also use the backlash to entrench himself further domestically.
When under pressure, autocratic rulers do not relinquish power, they double down, no matter what the cost, and Mohammed bin Salman is in a better position than most. Prince Mohammed’s consolidation of power since he became crown prince in June 2017 has drawn frequent comment. Yet much of the speculation about his prospects fails to note that in his parallel role as defense minister he has tightened his grip on Saudi Arabia’s military and security agencies.
Previously, these institutions functioned largely as separate fiefdoms headed by members of the royal family. In addition to preserving their individual stakes in the political order, the system allowed them to derive large fortunes from the construction and procurement contracts it generated. The reform and restructuring of the kingdom’s defense and security agencies remain a work in progress in improving their operational capabilities and performance, but they have enabled Mohammed bin Salman to dislodge all major rivals.
The most visible indication of this came in June and July 2017, when King Salman dismissed the then-interior minister, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, and brought all counterterrorism and domestic intelligence agencies under a single new body, the Presidency of State Security (PSS), which reports to Mohammed bin Salman. Among the transferred agencies was the powerful General Investigations Department. In addition to taking over these bodies and roles, the PSS and subsidiary agencies—such as the National Information Center that was also transferred from the Interior Ministry—became both hubs and recipients of major investments in cybersecurity. This continued a trend of investing in spyware and digital espionage for use against dissidents that is today at least four years old, as a report published by the Toronto-based Citizen Lab has detailed.
Reorganization has been accompanied by a changing of the guard in the military and security officer corps. King Salman replaced the commander of the Royal Guard in July 2017, and in February 2018 he appointed a new chief of staff for the Saudi armed forces, as well as new commanders for the land forces and air defense. Along with the air force and navy commanders, they report directly to Mohammed bin Salman. According to an unpublished planning document cited by defense analyst Neil Partrick, 800 new officer appointments are planned by the end of 2019.
The elevation of a whole generation of younger officers who are already loyal to the crown prince or stand to benefit from the avenues he is opening up for accelerated promotion and meaningful command will further secure his position. This includes measures such as promoting the head of the PSS and his deputy to ministerial rank, and is reinforced by replacing Interior Ministry officers and officials tied to Mohammed bin Nayef with others loyal to Prince Mohammed.
Even where officers do not owe their appointments entirely to Mohammed bin Salman, as in the Saudi National Guard, retention of separate National Guard and Defense Ministries blocks threats from either. But the longer-term tendency points toward consolidation under Mohammed bin Salman, who as Partrick notes has no deputy defense minister but is in the process of expanding the ministry’s organizational structure with five new assistant defense ministers and three undersecretaries.
In parallel, Mohammed bin Salman has aggressively restructured and expanded the defense and security sectors’ economic and commercial interests. Saudi Arabia Military Industries (SAMI) was established in May 2017 as a defense subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund that reports exclusively to Mohammed bin Salman. The General Authority Military Industries (GAMI) was set up in August 2017 to handle procurement for the Defense and Interior Ministries and other agencies such as the PSS. Both SAMI and GAMI come under an inter-ministerial committee chaired by Mohammed bin Salman.
While seemingly intended to curb corruption and excessive commission-taking in an enormously lucrative sector, these moves have deepened the transfer of assets and jurisdiction from potential rivals—such as the Interior Ministry’s portfolio of cyberintelligence affairs, which was transferred to the PSS. They have also provided Mohammed bin Salman with an additional financial asset, even when bodies such as SAMI have under-performed, since he is able to steer PIF-funded investments and contracts toward the defense and security agencies he favors. Prince Mohammed reinforced this trend by ordering a review of existing defense contracts in July 2018. This mirrored his revision or cancellation of massive civilian construction contracts since 2016, using his parallel power as chairman of the Council for Economic and Development Affairs.
These processes are incomplete and some may founder. It is not certain, for example, that the military’s planned Joint Operational Command—part of the roadmap for developing the Ministry of Defense endorsed by King Salman in July 2017—will come into being. But the cumulative effect is transformative: A previously segmented defense and security framework is being beaten into one that is more unitary, reflecting a similar direction in the Saudi state. What Prince Mohammed is doing is not an aberration or entirely new, being solidly anchored in internal changes in the economic and institutional spheres that have been years in the making.
Whatever the fallout of the Khashoggi murder, Mohammed bin Salman is well positioned to resist any internal attempt to dislodge him. Given the extent of Western economic entanglement with Saudi Arabia, it would take a level of wholly unimaginable international sanctions to dent his domestic position. And even if it did, Western governments would have to threaten the Saudi defense and security sectors with complete incapacitation before they would buck the trend that Mohammed bin Salman has been pursuing.
Comments(10)
THE MIDDLE EAST CURSE. Mr. Adel Ahmed Al-Jubeir, Saudi Foreign Minister (FM) exudes power and decisiveness, and Mr. Mohammad Javad Zarif (Iran FM) is probably a man of similar character and accomplishments. They represent the absolute Monarch King Salman of Saudi Arabia and the Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Such an elite enjoy every privilege under the sun, including the right to imprison dissidents and flagrant violation of human rights. There is no free journalism in either country only propaganda, there is no independent judiciary but tyranny. What is perplexing are the viciousness of their actions, combative rhetoric against each other, and $Trillions spent in sophisticated weaponry to settle their sectarian rifts. The humanitarian disaster in Yemen and Syria, reveals the Saudi Monarchy and Ayatollah Kamenei hypocrisy, extended sense of hubris and entitlement. The Middle East Monarchies and tyrants are a blessing to a few and a curse to most Islamic people; there is no sustainability between their fantastic wealth and the crushing poverty of the Islamic population at large. The Spring revolution in Egypt and elsewhere was a close call and it is bound to repeat sooner than later. The Saudi excesses, Iran Nuclear aspirations and their continued belligerence are currently under intense public scrutiny. In the background, the neocons in the Trump administration are fusing with the Saudis and PM Netanyahu to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat. It is this militant alliance that is fueling Iran steadfast desire to acquire nuclear weapons. The UN is a useless body dealing with Iran/Saudi debacle (due to the veto power). Therefore, it is up to the EU, US Congress (after midterm elections) and the rest of the world who must come to terms with the reality that these absolutist nations need help to change their behavior. On the one hand, King Salman should not expect the world to look forward to 60 or more years of MBS bullying government style. He could create an electable parliament ( or similar) to share power with the King successor. On the other hand, Iran has shown that a nuclear Iran is indeed a terrible idea. As the Trump administration takes sides in the dispute, he is making the solution much worse; whether it is my imagination or not the MIddle East peace process needs America. Perhaps not Trump America, but the one coming after him.
I agree with most of this. International responses are unlikely to lead to the overthrow of MBS. But he has made many enemies within the House of Saud. Control of the Security Apparatus does not make a family coup impossible or assassination either. The family calculation will surely depend on whether he is seen as likely to provoke their downfall if he continues on his present path. If they turned against him, means would be found to revert to older consensual and cautious ways.
In your dreams. You’re living (half) in a bygone world.
Saudi Arabia is a basket country.
I wonder if Yezid could comment on growing collaboration with China as western countries pull back from their deep involvement. Or maybe they can’t afford to pull back.
The author misses the most important point in all of this: we are dealing with a “mad king” scenario. All else is just froth.
For many local and regional influential entities, MBS had moved from being a valuable asset, to a burning liability overnight. His Chances of survival are slimming down at an alarming speed. A plot to assassinate him may be lurking in the background. That by itself, is capable of triggering a brutal race to pick up his throne (if it stays intact). Not sure if the Al-Saud monarchy would prove capable of surviving such a spear.
Believe it or not. MBS has nothing to do with ordering or directing that nasty, abhorrent murder. That's why he will surely pass this tragedy. Saudi Arabia has never experienced a more vicious situation, but they've got to come clear and straight to uncover such a crime whatever the costs are.
There is always one possibility natural death. Everyone is so obsessed about this man's power it could me mistaken for him being omnipotent. But than again Tyrants in that part of the world are cursed with longevity!
"MBS is well positioned to resist any internal attempt to dislodge him" but Trump has recently stated that if it were not for USA the whole Saudi regime will not survive; which begs the question: will USA prop up the Saw murder regime? to be replaced by sword murderer?or even Chemical murder a la Assad in syria?
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