Carnegie Middle East Center
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Without a firm constitutional basis, early elections in Libya would not only produce a government whose legitimacy is contested even more widely, but also leave the door open for another strongman to rise to power.
Whatever the outcome of Turkey’s June 24 elections, a new presidential system will come into effect and the foreign policy, economic, and social ramifications will be significant.
The negative consequences of pulling out of the JCPOA could be diminished by aligning the goals announced by the Trump administration into an operational, strategic agenda.
While Iran’s positive political transformation may be a worthy goal, the Trump administration’s reckless execution of this strategy could serve to resuscitate an ailing regime.
Europe remains at fault for both failing to rebuild Libya following its 2011 intervention, and for increasingly relying on rights-abusing militias for its coast guard and migrant interdiction responsibilities.
The Trump administration does not have a plan to get Iran to do anything the United States wants. Pompeo’s new strategy to counter Iran’s behavior across the Middle East is just a long wish list of demands.
Absent effective institutions, Libya has struggled and devolved into civil war since the fall of Qaddafi. But while the country has dropped off Western radars since the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Benghazi, the story of Libya is far from finished.
Gulf-based Salafi financiers have had a diminished role in the Syrian civil war recently, but their influence will linger in the country's religious sphere.
While the Middle East’s central battle line is changing, Egypt is pursuing a strategy of opportunism that aims to maximize its returns and preserve its options.
Tunisia’s decentralization process has tremendous potential. Yet the central government, local government, civil society, and international donors must each invest in the process.