Economic interests, combined with national security considerations, give Turkey an incentive not to seek nuclear weapons.
Whoever takes the White House in 2016 will determine the fate of Obama’s deal.
There are signs of internal dissension within the self-proclaimed Islamic State. But even if it is in partial retreat, it is a likely threat in the Middle East—and to Western interests—for years to come.
If the parties’ opening positions are used as benchmarks, the parameters of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action favor Iran. If the deal is seen through the lenses of their strategic objectives, the picture is far more nuanced.
An Iranian nuclear framework can be an important part of a wider strategy in the Middle East.
The Iran deal reached last week has created a moment of cautious optimism. The agreement exceeded expectations, but a final deal has yet to be reached.
While the fall of Idlib is a clear loss for the regime of embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the takeover of Yarmouk by the self-proclaimed Islamic State is a regime-blessed tactic, if not necessarily a successful one.
Nusra aims to strengthen its footprint and widen its influence in the northern Syria and present itself as the primary force fighting the Assad regime on the ground.
The agreement with Iran, if one is finally reached, will not be the end, but a beginning. It must be strong and carefully framed and minutely monitored, but it need not be watertight in order for it to ultimately open the way to a permanently nonnuclear Iran.
Tensions with Iran could finally ease once a nuclear deal is reached.